According to a new survey, Americans are embracing artificial intelligence (AI) technologies at a remarkable rate, outpacing the adoption of personal computers and the internet. This has prompted academics to reevaluate how AI would affect productivity and the economy.
Harvard economist David Deming, who had previously questioned AI’s near-term economic advantages, was astonished by the results. He and colleagues economists Alexander Bick and Adam Blandin polled Americans to see how frequently they use generative AI. Their poll, carried out between June and August 2024, was based on the gold-standard Current Population poll (CPS). They used a large, nationally representative sample to assure accurate data by cross-referencing their questions with the CPS.
The poll results were striking: 40% of Americans aged 18 to 64 had used generative AI, with more than 24% having used it at work in the week preceding the survey. Interestingly, AI use was not confined to younger or more educated populations. Even 22% of blue-collar workers reported utilizing AI, and the technology was used in every major occupational sector except personal services, which had a 15% utilization rate. AI adoption is far quicker than that of personal computers or the internet, in part because AI tools are typically free or low-cost and simple to use, as opposed to early technologies, which needed expensive hardware and technical knowledge.
So, what does this rapid adoption of AI mean for the economy?
While generative AI is extensively employed, its influence on productivity remains unclear. Deming’s poll discovered that many Americans use AI more in their spare time than at work. This raises concerns about whether AI will actually lead to the anticipated spike in productivity growth. Historically, productivity growth—the capacity of people to do more in less time—has been modest, despite the arrival of breakthrough technology such as cellphones. Although cellphones put enormous computational capability in everyone’s hands, they have not resulted in a significant improvement in productivity.
According to Deming’s statistics, AI is being utilized for labor duties like as writing, evaluating information, and giving administrative support. Despite this, he admits that many businesses may not openly support AI use. Instead, workers may use technologies like ChatGPT silently and without disclosing it.
Daron Acemoglu, an MIT economist and notable AI critic, remarked on the report, stating that while many individuals use AI, not all of them are productive. Occasional or non-work-related AI applications may not have a substantial economic impact. He believes that for AI to have a significant impact on productivity, it must be fully integrated into workplace processes, necessitating investments in new organizational structures and staff training.
Deming and his colleagues also sought to assess the possible productivity increase from AI. According to their research, AI might result in a 0.125 to 0.875 percentage-point improvement in productivity growth, which may appear minor but could have a substantial influence on the economy over time.
Although no one expects AI to create a big economic revolution, Deming is optimistic that even tiny productivity increases from AI will contribute to economic development and greater living standards. He intends to continue researching AI’s influence, particularly as it gets more incorporated into daily technologies, like as Apple’s new iPhone, which includes built-in ChatGPT.
This information was adapted from NPR’s original article by Greg Rosalsky, published on October 8, 2024. You can check out the full article here.
Hi, I'm Voss Xolani, and I'm passionate about all things AI. With many years of experience in the tech industry, I specialize in explaining the functionality and benefits of AI-powered software for both businesses and individual users. My content explores the latest AI tools, offering practical insights on how they can streamline workflows, boost productivity, and drive innovation. I also review new software solutions to help readers understand their features and applications. Beyond that, I stay up-to-date with AI trends and experiment with emerging technologies to provide the most relevant information.